Sizing Up Manchester United’s Chances of Finishing in The Top Four

The English Premier League is gradually nearing the end of this season with every passing game and as usual, many football fans have started evaluating where their clubs would finish in the end.

Fans of clubs like Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal have very little to worry about as they are certain their clubs would finish in the top four, their only worry should definitely be who lifts the trophy. This is not the same for clubs like, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, and Aston Villa who are sure to be in very tight battle to pick up the remaining UEFA Champions league slot for next season.

Aston Villa, who is currently sitting fourth on the English Premier League table with 56 points, last appeared in the UEFA Champions League in 1983 and would be putting up a fight to come back to the competition after 41 years.

Tottenham is currently on fifth position with 53 points, having played 28 games just as Manchester United who is on sixth position with 47 points, a game less than Aston Villa who has played 29.

In this post, we are assessing Manchester United’s chances of finishing in the top four at the end of the season and claiming the last spot of the UEFA Champions League for next season. Would Manchester United be able to leapfrog both Tottenham and Aston Villa at the end?

The table below shows Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester United’s remaining fixtures;

The fixtures shaded in thick red to light red are expected losses for each team in the order of more difficulty, those shaded in green are expected winnings while those in grey are expected draws.

If the results from the events go as predicted from the table, Aston Villa is expected to lose Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, more likely to lose further 2 fixtures in Brighton and Wolves, draw against Chelsea and more likely to win against Brentford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. Total expected points for Aston Villa from their remaining 9 games is 11 points. Therefore, Aston Villa is expected to finish the season at 67 points.

Similarly, Tottenham is expected to lose against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, likely to lose against Westham and expected to win against Luton, Nottingham Forest, Burnley and Sheffield United and expected to draw against Newcastle and Chelsea. Therefore, Tottenham is expect to get 15 points from their remaining 10 games to take their point tally at the end of the season to 68 points.

Also, Manchester United is expected to lose against Liverpool and Arsenal, win against Burnley, Sheffield United, Brentford and Crystal Palace, and draw against Newcastle and Chelsea and likely to lose against Brighton on the last day. Therefore, Manchester United is expected to get 15 points from their remaining 10 games and a total of 64 points at the end of the season.

From the above analysis, Tottenham would finish in fourth position with 68 points, Aston Villa in fifth position with 67 points and Manchester United to remain in 6th position with 62 points.

Do note that this is just a projection and we should be expecting some surprises as the season nears the end. I will revisit this article at the end of the season to see how this projection turned out.